Thursday, April 23, 2009

Glenmore Analysis

A reader asked me to evaluate in general the Glenmore neighborhood over the last 5 years.

Here is what is happening in regards to sales prices since 2004:





As you can see the average house price has hovered around $700K. There are only 7 sales in 2009 in Glenmore so it is not much of a distribution to draw any conclusions from.


If we look at the difference between the 2009 assessed value and the last sale price we see the following:


There has only been 7 properties that have sold in 2009 for Glenmore, and the average price paid is $12.5K LOWER than assessed prices. Bear in mind that I am using 2009 assessments to compare to sales in previous years, that is why 2006, 2007, and 2008 show negative differences because at that time the market was higher than it was now, and I am not using the corresponding years assessment data to compare it to.

What does this all tell me? Glenmore on average has held values around $700K and probably will continue to do so, however with more focus being paid on assessed value property owners will probably be thankful for higher assessments.

What do you think?

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Worth a look: $729K - 3310 Petal Lane


$729K - 3310 Petal Lane, Charlottesville, VA, 22903

I thought I would highlight a house on the higher end that I think is worth a look.

Disclosure:

  • I have not and I am not actively pursuing this property;
  • I have no relationship with the builder or listing agent;
  • The listing agent is also the wife of the builder of the house, so you can expect that they have baked in at least a 4% transaction cost into the price.

The house is a beautiful farm house on 3.125 acres in Rosemont.  

According to the listing it has 4,059 sq ft finished and 1,359 sq ft unfinished.  The county records show 3,399 sq ft finished and 1,673 sq ft unfinished.  It is in the best performing schools Murray, Henley, Western Albemarle. 

The lot was purchased in 2003 for $225K.  That was pre-bubble pricing so I am going to leave it valued as is.

The house was built in 2003 by Skyline Home Builders.  I have seen the quality of their construction and attention to detail, and I am impressed by their work.  I am going to assess their construction at $110/sq ft for finished and $35/sq ft for unfinished and I am going to use the county measurements for finished and unfinished sq ft.

Improvements Value: $110*(3,399) + $35*(1,673) = $373,890 + $58,555 = $432,445

Depreciation for the last 6 years = (6/30) * $432,445 = $86,489

Current Value of Improvements = $432,445 - $86,489 = $345,956

Value of Land = $225,000

Total Property Value = $570,956

Given that there is a discrepancy of the sq ft I would value this house between $571K - $633K.

Working off the high end of my valuation $633K with 20% down ($126K) and at 6% the loan would cost around $3,036 a month not including insurance or property taxes.  Qualifying income would be starting at $110K.

It is a beautiful home with easy access to 64 or 250.  This could be an excellent purchase for a professional couple, or a corporate transplant.

I came up with a new metric called the "Gotta have it Premium" which shows the range of the premium that I think the buyer is paying when purchasing it at list price in order to live in that house in that neighborhood.  This range is calculated by subtracting my valuation from the listing price.

I am sure this new metric will create some good discussion! :)

Pershing Valuation: $571K - $633K

Gotta Have it Premium: $158K - $96K

What do you think?

Summary Information
Parcel Information
Total Acres3.1250
Primary Prop. Address3310 PETAL LN
Other AddressN/A
Property Card(s)1
Lot1
Property NameN/A
SubdivisionRosemont
NotesL-1 S-1 ROSEMONT / / / / 
Owner Information
OwnerBOWEN, CHRISTOPHER M OR LISA A
AddressP O BOX 48 
IVY VA, 22945-0048
Owner as of Jan 1stBOWEN, CHRISTOPHER M OR LISA A
Most Recent Assessment Information
Year2009
Assessment Date01/01/2009
Assessment ReasonReassessment
Land Value$213,800
Land Use Value$0
Improvements Value$525,300
Total Value$739,100
Most Recent Sales History
Previous OwnerSKYLINE HOME BUILDERS LLC
OwnerBOWEN, CHRISTOPHER M OR LISA A
Sale Date11/18/2004
Sale Price$0
Deed Book/Page2876/032
Validity of SaleInvalid Sale
Other Tax Information as of Jan 1st
State CodeSingle Fam Res up to 5 acres
Tax TypeReg. Taxable
Parcel Level Use CodeSingle Family
Primary Zoning DesignationRural Areas
AppraiserJSD
Improvements - Card 1
Improvements (Card Level Data)
Card TypeResidential
Infrastructure Improvements
Garden Tub 
Paved Driveway.....1 TOTAL VALUE 
Well / Septic 
No Service - Jurisdictional Area Designation
Primary Building Additions
Garage, Attached Frame.....552 sq ft
Patio, Bluestone.....240 sq ft
Porch, Wood Floor.....252 sq ft
Porch, Wood Floor.....91 sq ft
Deck, Mahogany.....200 sq ft
Primary Building Details
Comm. SectionN/A
Card Level Use CodeSingle Family
Year Built2003
Year RemodeledN/A
ConditionGood
GradeA2
Number of Stories2
Story Height (ft)N/A
House Type2 Story
Finished Sq. Ft.3,399
Basement TypeFull : Walkout
Basement Garage Doors0
Bsmt Fin. Sq. Ft.0
Bsmt Tot. Sq. Ft.1,673
Attic TypeN/A
Attic Tot. Sq. Ft.0
Roof MaterialDimensional
HeatingHeat Pump
CoolingCentral Air
Fireplace(s)1
Fireplace TypeGas Fireplace
Wall FramingN/A
Exterior CoveringHardiplank
Bedrooms5
Dining Rooms1
Family Rooms1
Full Baths4
Half Baths0
Total Room Count
(Every unit assumed to have kitchen and living room. Bathrooms are not included in total room count.)
Land Value Information
Land Value Information
Land UseHomesite 1
Acres2.0000
Sq. Ft.87120.0000
Rate$200,000.00
Adj Rate$200,000.00
Base Value$200,000.00
Adj Amount($20,000.00)
Value$180,000.00
Land UseResidual 1
Acres1.1250
Sq. Ft.49005.0000
Rate$30,000.00
Adj Rate$30,000.00
Base Value$33,750.00
Adj Amount$0.00
Value$33,750.00
Assessments
Assessments
Year2009
Assessment Date01/01/2009
Assessment ReasonReassessment
Land Value$213,800
Land Use Value$0
Improvements Value$525,300
Total Value$739,100
Year2008
Assessment Date01/01/2008
Assessment ReasonReassessment
Land Value$236,300
Land Use Value$0
Improvements Value$623,700
Total Value$860,000
Year2007
Assessment Date01/01/2007
Assessment ReasonReassessment
Land Value$233,800
Land Use Value$0
Improvements Value$683,800
Total Value$917,600
Year2006
Assessment Date01/01/2006
Assessment ReasonEnd-of-year Rollover
Land Value$226,900
Land Use Value$0
Improvements Value$681,600
Total Value$908,500
Year2005
Assessment Date01/01/2005
Assessment ReasonReassessment
Land Value$226,900
Land Use Value$0
Improvements Value$681,600
Total Value$908,500
Year2004
Assessment Date01/01/2004
Assessment ReasonEnd-of-year Rollover
Land Value$120,900
Land Use Value$0
Improvements Value$592,500
Total Value$713,400
Year2003
Assessment Date12/31/2003
Assessment ReasonNew Construction-2nd Cycle
Land Value$120,900
Land Use Value$0
Improvements Value$592,500
Total Value$713,400
Year2003
Assessment Date01/01/2003
Assessment ReasonReassessment
Land Value$120,900
Land Use Value$0
Improvements Value$0
Total Value$120,900
Year2002
Assessment Date01/01/2002
Assessment ReasonEnd-of-year Rollover
Land Value$85,400
Land Use Value$0
Improvements Value$0
Total Value$85,400
Year2001
Assessment Date01/01/2001
Assessment ReasonReassessment
Land Value$85,400
Land Use Value$0
Improvements Value$0
Total Value$85,400
Year2001
Assessment Date01/01/2001
Assessment ReasonEnd-of-year Rollover
Land Value$85,400
Land Use Value$0
Improvements Value$0
Total Value$85,400
Year2000
Assessment Date01/01/2000
Assessment ReasonEnd-of-year Rollover
Land Value$69,000
Land Use Value$0
Improvements Value$0
Total Value$69,000
Year1999
Assessment Date01/01/1999
Assessment ReasonReassessment
Land Value$69,000
Land Use Value$0
Improvements Value$0
Total Value$69,000
Year1998
Assessment Date01/01/1998
Assessment ReasonN/A
Land Value$75,100
Land Use Value$0
Improvements Value$0
Total Value$75,100
Year1997
Assessment Date01/01/1997
Assessment ReasonN/A
Land Value$75,100
Land Use Value$0
Improvements Value$0
Total Value$75,100
Year1996
Assessment Date01/01/1996
Assessment ReasonN/A
Land Value$75,100
Land Use Value$0
Improvements Value$0
Total Value$75,100
Transfer History
Transfer History
Previous OwnerSKYLINE HOME BUILDERS LLC
OwnerBOWEN, CHRISTOPHER M OR LISA A
Sale Date11/18/2004
Sale Price$0
Deed Book/Page2876/032
Validity of SaleInvalid Sale
Previous OwnerDAHL, THOMAS P OR KRISTIN F
OwnerSKYLINE HOME BUILDERS LLC
Sale Date05/15/2003
Sale Price$225,000
Deed Book/Page2460/001
Validity of SaleValid Sale
Previous OwnerHALEY, CHISHOLM & MORRIS INC
OwnerDAHL, THOMAS P OR KRISTIN F
Sale Date12/21/1999
Sale Price$85,000
Deed Book/Page1882/089
Validity of SaleValid Land
Previous OwnerN/A
OwnerN/A
Sale Date06/24/1988
Sale Price$0
Deed Book/Page999/378
Validity of SaleDeed of Gift
Previous OwnerN/A
OwnerHALEY, CHISHOLM & MORRIS INC
Sale Date06/24/1988
Sale Price$0
Deed Book/Page999/378
Validity of SaleDeed of Gift
Other Parcel Characteristics
Other Parcel Characteristics
School Districts
Elementary School DistrictMurray
Middle School DistrictHenley
High School DistrictWestern Albemarle
Magisterial District & Voting Precinct Information
Magisterial DistrictSamuel Miller
Voting PrecintRed Hill
Census Information
Census Block Group2
Census Tract112
Zoning Information
PrimaryRural Areas
SecondaryUnassigned
MinorUnassigned
OtherUnassigned
Proffered?No
Natural Resource Extraction Overlay?No
Flood Hazard Overlay?No
Airport Impact Area?No
Scenic Stream Overlay?No
Entrance Corridor?No
Comprehensive Plan Information
Comp Plan AreaRural Area 3
Comp Plan Land Use - PrimaryRural Area
Comp Plan Land Use - SecondaryUnassigned
Comp Plan Land Use - MinorUnassigned
Comp Plan Land Use - OtherUnassigned
Land Use Survey Information
Land Use - PrimaryResidential -- Single-family (incl. modular homes)
Number of Structures - Primary1
Number of Dwelling Units - Primary1
Land Use - SecondaryAgricultural
Number of Structures - Secondary0
Number of Dwelling Units - Secondary0
Land Use - MinorOpen
Number of Structures - Minor0
Number of Dwelling Units - Minor0
Other Information
SubdivisionRosemont
MPO/CHART Area?Yes
Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ)221
Jurisdictional Area DesignationNo Service
WatershedIvy Creek
Water Supply Protection Area?Yes
Development Area?No
Other Rural Land?No
Ag/Forest DistrictN/A
Conservation Easement?No